Polymarket Sets AI Bubble Burst Probability at 20%
Polymarket estimates a 19-20% probability that the AI industry bubble will burst before the end of 2026. This forecast is based on strict quantitative conditions, requiring extreme events like an Nvidia stock crash or OpenAI bankruptcy to occur within a 90-day window.
2026-07-31 ~ 2026-08-01 · 2 related posts
- Episode 1: Polymarket Bets on AI Bubble Burst This Month at 15-16%(2026-07-07, 2 posts)
- Episode 2: Polymarket Places AI Bubble Burst Probability at 17% by Year-End(2026-07-20, 2 posts)
- Episode 3: Polymarket AI Bubble Burst Probability Rises to 28% as Leopold Fund Liquidates(2026-07-29, 16 posts)
- Episode 4: Ex-OpenAI Researcher's AI Hedge Fund Plunges 67% in July, Forced to Liquidate(2026-07-30, 32 posts)
- Episode 5: Leopold's AI Fund Liquidation Sparks Debate Between Finance and Tech Circles(2026-07-31, 4 posts)
- Episode 6: Polymarket Sets AI Bubble Burst Probability at 20%(2026-07-31, 2 posts)
- Polymarket Defines AI Bubble Burst: NVDA Down 50% or OpenAI Bankrupt (20% Odds) — Polymarket · 2026-07-31
- Polymarket Prices AI Bubble Burst Odds at Just 19% — Polymarket · 2026-08-01