Polymarket Sets AI Bubble Burst Criteria: NVDA Down 50%, OpenAI Bankruptcy
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-01
Polymarket launched a prediction market on whether the AI industry will experience a downturn by the end of 2026, with the probability of a burst currently at 19%.
The market has specific objective triggers: a downturn is declared if at least three of the following occur within a 90-day window:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) closing stock price drops 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) drops 40%.
- OpenAI declares bankruptcy or is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days.
- Major AI hardware suppliers (TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, etc.) drop 50% from their peaks.
Related event: Polymarket Prices AI Bubble Burst Probability at 19%(3 posts)→
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