Polymarket Defines AI Bubble Burst: NVDA Down 50% or OpenAI Bankrupt (20% Odds)
Polymarket · x · 2026-07-31
Prediction market Polymarket currently estimates a 20% chance of an AI industry bubble bursting by the end of 2026. The platform defines an "industry downturn" using strict quantitative metrics, requiring at least three of the following to occur within 90 days:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) closing stock price drops 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price drops 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI or Anthropic declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days.
- Major AI hardware suppliers like TSMC, ASML, or Broadcom drop 50% from their all-time highs.
In other news mentioned in the thread, LinkedIn is rolling out a “Seems like AI slop” button to combat low-quality, AI-generated content.
Related event: Polymarket Prices AI Bubble Burst Probability at 19%(3 posts)→
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