长文拆解 CXMT HBM 经济账:每 GB 毛利率可达 60%-71%
zephyr_z9 · x · 2026-10-28
zephyrz9 rebuts the claim that CXMT's HBM economics don't pencil out at 20% yields with a detailed breakdown:
- CXMT's HBM3 production cost is $2/Gb vs $0.6/Gb for the memory big three, but it sells at $5-7/Gb—implying 60-71% gross margins on HBM even at current yields, and 85% GM on DRAM. Highly GM-positive.
- This is CXMT's first HBM mass production; low starting yields are natural (Samsung went through the same). Yield loss occurs at bonding and TSV formation, not lithography, and WFE tools aren't a bottleneck: CXMT has Hanmi bonders, Disco grinding tools, and ACMR plating equipment. Yields should reach 50-70% by Q2.
- Ideally MP would start Q2 2027, but Chinese XPU designers launching new products in Q4 26–Q1 27 force earlier supply.
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