Ben Todd: trend extrapolation reaches superhuman AI within 18 months, no trend-break needed
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-15
Benjamin Todd argues that simply extending the last four years' trends yields broadly human-level "digital worker" AGI in 2–4 years, with superhuman AI soon after. Key evidence: OpenAI + Anthropic annualized revenue topped $115B as of September 2026, tripling yearly for over four years; continuing to $10T by late 2030 would correspond to AI absorbing most remote/white-collar work. Near-term superintelligence wouldn't break any trend — and the burden of proof now lies on those claiming progress will stop.
Related event: Trend Extrapolation Alone Puts AGI Before 2030, Says 80,000 Hours Founder(4 posts)→
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