Trend Extrapolation Alone Puts AGI Before 2030, Says 80,000 Hours Founder

80,000 Hours founder Benjamin Todd argues that simple extrapolation of recent trends—AI task time horizons doubling roughly every 56 days—would deliver human-level digital-worker AGI within 2-4 years and possibly superhuman AI in 18 months, without assuming any trend-breaking breakthroughs.

2026-11-15 ~ 2026-11-15 · 4 related posts

• Ben Todd: 3 factors explain AI hitting 10,000-hour math tasks without superexponential growth — ben_j_todd · 2026-11-15
• Ben Todd: trend extrapolation reaches superhuman AI within 18 months, no trend-break needed — ben_j_todd · 2026-11-15
• Benjamin Todd: dumb trend extrapolation gets to AGI by 2030, no RSI needed — ben_j_todd · 2026-11-15
• AI task-horizon doubling now 56 days: trend extrapolation yields AGI by 2030 — ben_j_todd · 2026-11-15