Tom Davidson: exponential spend buys linear AI capability, but exponential R&D output gains
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-15
Responding to scaling skeptics, Tom Davidson (amplified by benjtodd) concedes that exponential increases in spending are needed for linear gains in ECI (effective capability index)—but argues linear ECI growth translates into exponential productivity gains in AI R&D, potentially enabling an intelligence explosion.
The chain: exponential spend → linear ECI → exponential AI R&D output. He links to an updated version of his writeup.
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