J.P. Morgan: Nvidia's share of future frontier lab compute deals falls to 39% from 80%+

Gregory_C_Allen · x · 2026-11-15

A J.P. Morgan note finds Nvidia has only a 39% share of future frontier lab compute agreements, down from its 80%+ market share in 2023-2025, with AMD GPUs at 15%, Google TPUs at 16%, Broadcom custom silicon at 24%, and Amazon Trainium at 6%.

Of the seven large accelerator buyers (five hyperscalers plus two frontier labs), only SpaceX is not building its own chips.
AMD tops the inference performance index, which factors in memory and inter-chip communication; the MI455X results may erode part of Nvidia's CUDA-ecosystem and tokens-per-watt advantage.
One frontier lab said onboarding models on AMD GPUs used to take 6-12 months of costly engineering, but with its latest AI model doing the engineering it now takes just 3 days.
The note also flags Nvidia's reliance on Chinese open-weight companies; Rubin Ultra in 2027 may shift the picture, but total cost of ownership normalized per GW is moving, and frontier labs are voting with their feet.

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J.P. Morgan: Nvidia's share of future frontier lab compute deals falls to 39% from 80%+

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