Dwarkesh Patel: Superintelligence May Be Months Away, AI Experts in Every Field by 2030
haider1 · x · 2026-11-14
Podcaster Dwarkesh Patel has dramatically updated his AGI timeline: earlier this year he thought superintelligence was at least a decade away, but after three months of debates and watching AI progress on verifiable domains, he now believes AI as good as the best humans at AI research is only a couple of years—and possibly months—away, with AI matching top human experts in every field by 2030 or even next year. The poster notes how bad humans are at predicting exponential progress.
Related event: Dwarkesh Radically Shortens ASI Timeline to Median 2028(13 posts)→
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