Dwarkesh now pegs median ASI arrival at 2028, arguing AI research is as verifiable as math
daniel_mac8 · x · 2026-11-16
Relayed by danielmac8, Dwarkesh Patel now believes ASI will arrive within a few years, with a median estimate of 2028 (possibly 2027-2030).
His core argument is verifiability: models went from failing elementary math to solving Millennium Prize problems in 2 years because math has automatic verification. AI research itself is largely as verifiable as math — problems like continual learning and sample efficiency have strong verifiable proxies. As AIs solve these, a compounding domino effect could let them tackle increasingly ambitious and impactful research problems.
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