Dwarkesh massively shortens timelines: ASI prediction moves from 2036 to 2027
flowersslop · x · 2026-11-14
Dwarkesh Patel has dramatically shortened his AGI/ASI timeline. 17 months ago he pushed his AGI prediction back to 2036; now he predicts ASI by 2027 — nine years earlier.
He recently said automated AI researchers matching the best humans may be only "a couple of months" away, whereas just months ago he thought it was "the better part of a decade." His previous median estimate for top-human-level automated researchers was 2028; he now believes it's a couple of years, possibly months, away, and that automating AI research will compress so much progress into a single year that a far more radical milestone could arrive by 2030, plausibly as early as next year.
Related event: Dwarkesh Radically Shortens ASI Timeline to Median 2028(13 posts)→
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