AI 2027's stock market predictions miss reality, as researchers weigh the new METR report
DavidSKrueger · x · 2026-11-13
A debate sparked by the new METR report: codytfenwick argues that while the report deserves to be taken seriously as an update toward shorter AI timelines, key parts of AI 2027 aren't playing out—especially the stock market calls:
- AI 2027 predicted the market up 30% by late 2026; it's around 10% with 1.5 months left
- The predicted surge driven by "OpenBrain, Nvidia, and AI-assistant integrators" hasn't materialized—Nvidia was up only 15% before the Jensen scandal broke, modestly beating the market, and has since dropped amid a broader AI drawdown
AI safety researcher David Krueger adds: the gap between AI metrics and real-world performance can be large or insurmountable, but adoption lags also factor in and are hard to disentangle.
Related event: Researchers Push Back on METR's AI Acceleration Findings(4 posts)→
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