80% METR time horizon likely already above 30h, says Ben Todd
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-13
Ben Todd admits he has underestimated AI again within a month: the 80%-reliability METR time horizon is probably already above 30h. Per his earlier chart, most forecasters expected 3h by end of 2026, but it was hit in April; his own call of 6h by year-end (5–9h range) remains on track.
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