Leading models' time horizons hit ~100h as doubling rate doubles to ~50x/year
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-13
Ben Todd argues AECI scores imply 100h task horizons for leading models at 50% reliability (33h at 80%), and that the rate of progress has doubled from 8x to 50x per year — a shift that happened six months ago without him noticing. The chart shows the 50% horizon doubling every 260 days in 2019–2023, every 92 days since 2024-Sonnet 4.5, and every 56 days since Opus 4.5.
More from AGI Musings
- Levels 9 and 10 of AI adoption: simulating strategies with competing agent organizations — danshipper · 2026-11-13
- zetalyrae's ASI preference order: universal ASI beats benevolent totalitarianism — esrtweet · 2026-11-13
- VC: 'Jensen ran Nvidia as the central bank of AI — that era is over' — nmasc_ · 2026-11-13
- Dev laments: a week of problem-solving is no longer worth an OSS project in the AI era — nptacek · 2026-11-13
- Richard Ngo: intelligence explosion believers will be 'directionally right but factually wrong' — NathanpmYoung · 2026-11-13
- Analyst: Everyone Underestimates Non-AI R&D Acceleration — It'll All Be Ripping Anyway — teortaxesTex · 2026-11-13