Richard Ngo: intelligence explosion believers will be 'directionally right but factually wrong'
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-11-13
Amid panic over METR's new report suggesting a 2027 intelligence explosion, Richard Ngo's months-old post is resurfacing: Dario Amodei and Jan Leike's AGI predictions were directionally right but factually wrong, and he expects the same for today's explosion believers — no superintelligence within 8 years, yet progress fast enough to make short-timeline advocates 'feel' vindicated. He warns of a 'Shepard tone' decade of perpetual panic, diverging model capability vs real-world impact, and plans to argue LLMs can become superhuman at many skills without triggering a singularity.
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