Thorsten-4 model reads execs' false confidence on earnings calls; hedge fund trades $50M on it

rohanpaul_ai · x · 2026-11-13

Per rohanpaulai, Thorsten-4 sees through executives' false confidence on earnings calls and beats sentiment tools at predicting actual stock outcomes; a hedge fund now trades a $50M portfolio on it. The key is training data: 50+ psychologists interviewed 7,000+ people and spent 4+ years comparing what each said with what they actually did, teaching the model to map word choice and shifting writing patterns onto behavior — a link internet text never records. As framed: LLMs predict the next word, Thorsten-4 predicts a person's next move.

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