Viral comic: elite AI-risk discourse rests on the shaky assumption that offline evals predict the real world
joshua_saxe · x · 2026-11-12
A LEGO-stack comic is circulating in AI circles: a towering structure labeled "elite discourse on AI progress, risks, and impacts" balanced on one precarious brick — "the assumption that offline AI evals predict real-world outcomes despite poorly modeling the real world." Safety researcher Joshua Saxe endorses it: "This is true and we're going to pay a huge price in incorrect policy for it."
The comic hits a real weak point in AI governance debates: the mismatch between benchmarks and real-world capabilities could put the whole policy edifice on unreliable foundations.
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