Developers predict AI model plateau: the real gains will come from inference optimization
bendee983 · x · 2026-11-12
Developer bendee983 endorses ChShersh's prediction that AI models will plateau soon, with no GPT-4-to-o1-style leaps on the horizon.
Key points:
- Quality training data is nearly exhausted; what remains is mostly synthetic or produced at very high cost by labs under profit pressure
- Model-harness co-evolution (building harnesses for verifiable tasks, gathering rollout traces, retraining) works but is incremental and limited to verifiable domains
- He's bullish on inference optimization: current models are already more capable than most users exploit, and lower cost + higher speed will unlock many new applications
ChShersh adds that AI reduces the incentive to create new human knowledge — people stop asking on StackOverflow — so the coming era is about finding applications for AI, not improving models, as OpenAI and Anthropic pivot to B2B competition.
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