Conditional prediction markets price consequences well but can't tell decision-makers what to do
lxrjl · x · 2026-11-12
User lxrjl draws a key distinction: conditional prediction markets (e.g., "NVIDIA's stock price if Jensen is fired") work very well for estimating outcomes, but are much less useful for the person actually in a position to fire him and wondering whether they should. A crisp framework for the limits of Polymarket-style tools.
More from AGI Musings
- Peter Diamandis: People AI replaced first will be the ones who teach it next — PeterDiamandis · 2026-11-12
- After Adobe MAX, a design educator lists 10 fundamentals AI tools can't replace — rufusd · 2026-11-12
- Economist: AI is a super-powered shirking technology, effort collapses when unobservable — _akpiper · 2026-11-12
- Why AI transformation stalls on the left side of the quality-velocity U-curve — hazelcough · 2026-11-12
- RL pioneer John Langford joins Core Automation, a lab built around agent-driven research — JohnCLangford · 2026-11-12
- Humans have an additive mind, AIs a subtractive one: RL carves a Claude-shaped personality — _Stocko_ · 2026-11-12