AI 2027 authors update timelines: intelligence explosion looks set for 2027, takeover 3-12 months away
Puzzleheaded-King584 · reddit · 2026-11-12
Daniel Kokotajlo, author of the AI 2027 scenario, says "Unfortunately, it seems like the intelligence explosion will be happening in 2027 after all," adding he is "very worried" we're 3-12 months from AI takeover — and personally "scared, sad, and angry."
The AIFP team's Q3.5 timelines update leans on the new METR report: all five authors' forecasts for Top-Expert-Dominating AI have collapsed toward September 2027–September 2028, an acceleration Kokotajlo says is 5 months ahead of what the AI 2027 scenario implied.
Related event: AI 2027 author says intelligence explosion likely on track for 2027(2 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Future generations will find our debates over whether AI should make art hilarious — VraserX · 2026-11-12
- He tried to prove Crunchbase misses deals — it covered 41 of 45, logged 1 day early — YvesMulkers · 2026-11-12
- Critics slam Amodei's cure-all prediction: AI bubble draining investment from real biotech — AlexTensor · 2026-11-12
- AI can write all the code, but the hard part of software engineering was never the code — bendee983 · 2026-11-12
- Meta's François Fleuret sketches an agent-native Rust OS whose GUI is filtered by an LLM — francoisfleuret · 2026-11-12
- Veteran dev defends AI-using indies: SimCity and Minecraft were algorithm-generated too — MoldyMagnet · 2026-11-12