SPoT boosts calibration: AUROC 0.61 to 0.84 while learning to abstain

polkirichenko · x · 2026-11-12

Part 4 of the SPoT thread: models are trained via RL with a Brier-score reward to predict the probability their answer is correct. Versus a standard RL baseline, SPoT lifts confidence-estimation AUROC from 0.61 to 0.84 and selective accuracy from 79% to 83%, letting models abstain when uncertain while maintaining comparable raw accuracy.

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