Domingos: frontier AI capability is rising linearly, +16.5 ECI points/year, no exponential
pmddomingos · x · 2026-11-12
Pedro Domingos shared an Epoch AI-based chart of frontier model ECI scores to argue there is no exponential: capability has climbed a smooth linear trend of about +16.48 ECI points per year since October 2024, with the latest Anthropic Fable 5.2 at 174.24.
The chart also shows the frontier lead swapping repeatedly among OpenAI, Google and Anthropic, with Anthropic currently ahead. The takeaway: steady linear progress, not an intelligence explosion.
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