Epoch Data Sparks Debate: Frontier Model Capability Rises Only Linearly, 16.5 Points a Year

Pedro Domingos shared an Epoch AI-based chart of frontier model ECI scores, denying exponential growth as capability rises only about 16.5 points per year, with Anthropic retaking the lead.

2026-11-11 ~ 2026-11-12 · 2 related posts

• Frontier AI gains steady +16.5 ECI/year, Anthropic's Fable 5.2 takes the lead — sebkrier · 2026-11-11
• Domingos: frontier AI capability is rising linearly, +16.5 ECI points/year, no exponential — pmddomingos · 2026-11-12