ben_j_todd on RSI diffusion: +1% GDP next year possible, and GDP may miss white-collar automation
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-12
Ben Todd and Herbie Bradley debate the economic impact of recursive self-improvement. Bradley argues bottlenecks and diffusion friction likely turn an intelligence explosion into smooth, manageable capability gains over years — maybe +1% GDP rather than more if diffusion were instant.
Todd agrees there could be a small number of low-bottleneck tasks where diffusion is fast, with other tasks becoming unbottlenecked along the way; +1% GDP next year conditional on RSI seems possible but below his guess — noting GDP might totally fail to measure white-collar automation. Both agree a spread-out timeline is less risky, giving people time to react.
Related event: Is Even Dario Not AI-Pilled Enough? A Debate on ASI and Diffusion Speed(5 posts)→
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