Buck Shlegeris: ~1/3 chance of superintelligence within a year, likely AI takeover
jammastergirish · x · 2026-11-12
Buck Shlegeris (ex-MIRI executive director) argues there's roughly a one-in-three chance AI companies build superintelligence within the next year — AI far smarter than humans in every way — and that such AI would probably seize control of human institutions, with a serious chance most humans are killed in the process.
In relaying it, Nate Soares adds that AI timelines hinge not on public video models counting 'e's, but on private research models automating AI research; insiders closest to that info say rates look like "AI takeover in about a year."
Related event: Ex-MIRI Buck Shlegeris Puts 1-in-3 Odds on Superintelligence Within a Year(4 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- a16z: agents now make up the majority of web traffic — welcome to the B2A economy — evisoft · 2026-11-12
- Robotics researchers in denial about the bitter lesson: "if it can make slides, it's already a VLA" — keerthanpg · 2026-11-12
- AI 2027 authors defend SAR-by-2027 forecast as conditional on no slowdown — eli_lifland · 2026-11-12
- Why mathematicians panic: AI is inflating away their reputation currency — virtuolie · 2026-11-12
- Investor: AI diffusion will be slowest in consumer software — Oura, Strava, Labcorp still have no real AI strategy — MartinGTobias · 2026-11-12
- On AI Progress: When Models Lag on Your Load-Bearing Skill, You Can't See Them Improving — dfrsrchtwts · 2026-11-12