Jack Clark puts 60% odds on recursive self-improvement by end of 2028
JacquesThibs · x · 2026-11-11
OpenAI co-founder Jack Clark says that after spending weeks reading hundreds of public data sources on AI development, he believes recursive self-improvement has a 60% chance of happening by the end of 2028 — meaning AI systems may soon be capable of building themselves.
The retweeter notes this implies a 40% chance RSI doesn't happen by 2028, reading it as a major figure betting on a "long timelines world." The disagreement over AGI timelines among frontier-lab insiders captures the current industry debate.
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