Superforecasters cut ASI timeline by 3 years to 2028, citing METR report
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-11
Sentinel (formerly Samotsvety), a group of superforecasters tracking catastrophic risks, has repeatedly pulled forward its median superintelligence timeline:
- Sept 2022: AGI after 2042
- Jan 2023: AGI after 2038
- April 2026: ASI 2031
- Nov 2026: ASI 2028
The latest 3-year cut was driven by the METR report.
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