AI risk community splits over whether the intelligence explosion arrives in 2027
sebkrier · x · 2026-11-11
- Daniel Kokotajlo argues a new METR report implies an intelligence explosion will likely happen in 2027, about 5 months ahead of his AI 2027 scenario, admitting he feels "scared, sad, and angry."
- Tamay Besiroglu pushes back: the convergence on an imminent intelligence explosion is a positive development — when it fails to materialize, its advocates will be largely discredited and discourse will become more sane.
- The exchange captures a sharp internal divide in the AI risk community over capability takeoff timelines.
Related event: AI Risk Community Debates Whether an Intelligence Explosion Comes in 2027(2 posts)→
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