Forethought's calculator quantifies AI R&D automation speed-up without SIE
bookwormengr · x · 2026-11-11
Forethought's Tom Davidson and Tom Houlden built a speed-up calculator estimating how much automating AI R&D accelerates software progress absent a software intelligence explosion. Two drivers: faster researcher growth (parameters gL, gC, γ, α) and the classic software feedback loop (acceleration iff rcog > 1). Ben Todd's takeaway: even after a 6-month recursive leap covering 4 years, progress stays at 3x the 2024 rate—1-2 GPT generations per year or a 10x AI population.
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