Takeoff modeling defense: ideas function models fizzle, not explosion
austinc3301 · x · 2026-11-11
Responding to claims that assuming an ideas production function rigs takeoff models toward explosion, @austinc3301 argues the critique is backwards: the ideas production function is not a precondition for takeoff but an attempt to model a key obstacle that often makes RSI fizzle out. He cites Davidson's seminal takeoff modeling paper, which devotes an entire appendix to this question and puts meaningful weight on r<1, the regime where RSI fizzles.
Related event: METR's 2x AI R&D Acceleration Report Sparks Takeoff Debate(19 posts)→
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