Ramez Naam: calibration shows AI progress forecasts systematically overestimate
ramez · x · 2026-11-11
Responding to the argument that many forecasting models point in roughly the same direction and are our best tool for an illegible phenomenon, Ramez Naam counters: while he applauds anyone building models and writing down forecasts, empirical calibration shows all of these models overestimate real-world progress and feedback loops.
Related event: Scholars Debate the Value of AI Progress Forecasting Models(7 posts)→
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