AI 2027 author Kokotajlo: METR report points to intelligence explosion in 2027
KeybladeAxel19 · reddit · 2026-11-11
Daniel Kokotajlo, lead author of the AI 2027 paper, writes that "the intelligence explosion will be happening in 2027 after all." His analysis leans on the new METR report plus other evidence: if METR is right, AI-driven acceleration lands about 5 months ahead of the AI 2027 scenario. An accompanying chart shows AIFP team members' timelines to top-expert-dominating AI steadily dropping since Apr 2025, converging by Nov 2026 to between Sep 2027 (Daniel) and Sep 2028. Kokotajlo says he is "scared, sad, and angry."
Related event: AI 2027 Team Moves Up Timeline: Intelligence Explosion May Come in 2027(35 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Worst AI use: signaling you don't care about things you should — Afinetheorem · 2026-11-12
- Stanford HAI blueprint: 56 US agencies report 3,611 AI use cases, evaluation lags — StanfordHAI · 2026-11-12
- Fleuret amplifies debate: AI can't slash wet-lab experiments in unmapped biology — francoisfleuret · 2026-11-12
- Recursive bets on open-endedness: agents running massive parallel experiments like scientist communities — agihouse_org · 2026-11-12
- Recursive's Tim Shi maps recursive self-improvement: from learning data to discovering architectures — agihouse_org · 2026-11-12
- New essay argues design is a search problem — AI speeds exploration but that may not find optimal solutions — round · 2026-11-12