Critique: Was That 90% AGI Forecast Conditioned on No Policy Intervention?
austinc3301 · x · 2026-11-11
austinc3301 presses @tenobrus on forecasting methodology, noting the 90%-by-end-of-2027 prediction wasn't conditioned on an absence of policy intervention and asking whether that was intentional.
Related event: Community pushes back on 90% confidence AGI-by-2027 forecast(2 posts)→
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