All six AI 2027 authors now forecast superhuman AI researchers arriving in 2027
Tinac4 · reddit · 2026-11-11
The AI 2027 report authors updated their all-things-considered forecasts:
- SAR (superhuman AI researcher) medians: Daniel earliest at May 2027; others cluster Aug–Nov 2027 (Eli Aug, Brendan Sep, Romeo Aug, Lukas/Thomas Nov)
- TED-AI medians: Sep 2027 to Sep 2028
- p(TED-AI by end of 2027): Daniel 65%, Brendan 45%, Romeo 38%, Eli/Lukas/Thomas 35% each
All six authors now forecast SAR arriving within 2027—a tight, aggressive timeline.
More from AGI Musings
- Author clarifies AI-and-fiction book isn't about replacing artists — _akpiper · 2026-11-11
- SayashK, Bommasani, Narayanan launch STABL non-profit on AI societal adaptation — sayashk · 2026-11-11
- Investor Alsop: far less convinced now that AI will leave humans jobless — StewartalsopIII · 2026-11-11
- MATS fellow essay: four reasons UBI isn't a durable fix for AI-driven unemployment — luke_drago_ · 2026-11-11
- JPMorgan sees under 0.5% cumulative TFP gain from AI over next decade — GaryMarcus · 2026-11-11
- L Somerset proposes testable inside-view vs outside-view framework for agent interactions — SucceededMind · 2026-11-11