JPMorgan sees under 0.5% cumulative TFP gain from AI over next decade
GaryMarcus · x · 2026-11-11
Gary Marcus highlights a JPMorgan analysis finding the evidence for an AI productivity boom is far from clear — a cautious estimate puts cumulative TFP gains at less than 0.5% over the next decade. Marcus calls it yet another replication of generative AI's most-replicated result: productivity gains are minimal or hard to document.
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