AI 2027 authors move up timeline: superhuman AI researchers likely in 2027
VraserX · x · 2026-11-11
The AI 2027 forecast team (Eli Lifland, Daniel Kokotajlo, et al.) published an urgent timeline update arguing the intelligence explosion may come earlier than expected.
- Key evidence: METR estimates Anthropic is now making AI progress 2x its historical rate (range 1.3x–3x), with "perhaps ≈80%" of the acceleration driven by AI itself — implying an AI-driven acceleration 5 months ahead of the original AI 2027 scenario.
- New forecast: All team members now predict Superhuman AI Researcher (SAR) will likely arrive at some point in 2027 — previously even the most bullish author gave only a 50% chance before 2029.
- TED-AI: They assign a 35–65% chance that Top-Expert-Dominating AI capable of automating all white-collar work arrives before 2028.
- An accompanying logistic extrapolation suggests 95% of Anthropic's model R&D could be fully automated (AL5) by Nov 2027.
The authors acknowledge possible modeling errors but believe the high-level conclusions hold.
Related event: AI 2027 Team Moves Up Timeline: Intelligence Explosion May Come in 2027(35 posts)→
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