Can local AI kill the Akamai thesis? NPUs ship in a third of new devices, but hybrid wins for now
pdamodaran · x · 2026-11-11
DalalBytes stress-tests the Akamai inference-cloud thesis against local AI: NPUs ship in 1/3 of new phones and PCs, but on-device models stay tiny (Apple/Google 3B params); 16GB laptops fit 8B models, not 32B. On-prem is real (Dell: 6,500+ AI Factory customers; HPE: $931M air-gapped defense deal), and the same RTX PRO 6000 sits on both sides. Verdict: partial pressure — local trims the open inference tier, but demand compounds past local supply (Google: 3.2 quadrillion tokens/month) and everyone routes hybrid. Akamai's 2028 path survives: Q3 revenue $1.122B (+6%), Cloud Infrastructure Services +34% to $109M, $14B+ in multi-year commitments signed this year.
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