METR remote labour index on a log axis points to saturation by January 2028
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-10
Ben Todd revisits the METR remote labour index (real 30h Upwork tasks, human-graded automation rates). Linear extrapolation suggests saturation by April 2027, but he argues the trend belongs on a log axis, pushing saturation out to January 2028 (14 months away). The chart shows frontier model automation rates climbing along a straight line, with Claude Fable 5.2 near 40% and Gemini models lagging the Claude lineup.
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