Blogger predicts AI capabilities will plateau as lab valuations stall and open-source catches up
isnit0 · x · 2026-11-10
A blogger shares his falsifiable prediction: once big labs' valuations grow slowly or decline, they can't justify massive training runs, leading to a plateau in frontier capabilities, quick catch-up by distilled open-source models, and a flood of cheap compute that drives inference costs down. He expects artisanal fine-tuning companies to emerge, leveraged labs to struggle against focused late-movers, and the pharma/robots "mega-corp AI conglomerate" never to materialize—better to start your own company than be locked to one model family. No timeframe given, but he sees it as a pro-human outcome.
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