PC took 14 years to show in productivity stats — it's too early to judge AI
jburnmurdoch · x · 2026-11-10
- Azeem Azhar argues AI's impact on aggregate productivity statistics will take years to appear, just like the PC: US productivity growth didn't jump (1.4%→2.5-3.0%) until 14 years after the 1981 IBM PC, and economists confirmed the IT gain another 5 years later.
- Firm-level evidence (Ford cutting 75% of accounts-payable staff, a 367-firm study) appeared by 1987-1990 but was published 9 years later.
- Four years after ChatGPT and three years after enterprise GenAI went generally available, it's simply too soon for large firms or AI-native startups to move the aggregate numbers — individual companies are already reporting early gains.
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