Security budgets scale: 10x spending cuts exploit rates 58%, AI may close long-tail gap
joshua_saxe · x · 2026-11-10
joshuasaxe, working with Fable 5.2, combined noisy signals to estimate vendors' annual appsec budgets versus exploited vulnerability rates: roughly 10x the budget yields 58% lower exploitation per 100k customer organizations. Ivanti (96), F5 (37) and Palo Alto (24) top the risk chart; Microsoft logs 11 despite a $1.5B+ budget, Alphabet just 1.6. His concern: most enterprises rely on long-tail vendors that can't afford modern appsec — and he hopes AI automation and cheap tokens can close the gap. Data from CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog; budget estimates uncertain by 2-3x.
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