METR report: AI R&D at Anthropic sped up ~2x, sparking AI timeline debate
trevposts · x · 2026-11-10
METR's recent report found that AI progress at Anthropic has sped up roughly 2x, mostly because AI is now accelerating AI research itself. Ajeya Cotra and Ryan Greenblatt both treat this as a major update toward shorter AI timelines: Greenblatt argues a 2x speed-up implies a much larger effective "time warp bubble" for research staff, that the acceleration could compound extremely fast, and that we aren't prepared. The original poster (@austinc3301) spent the weekend building his own view on this in a thread.
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