AI takeoff models boil down to three questions, says new synthesis
austinc3301 · x · 2026-11-10
The author argues that even if METR is right, today's 2x is just one point on the curve. AI takeoff models reduce to three questions: how big the initial speedup from automating AI research is, whether progress keeps accelerating, and how far the effective limits are (citing Davidson & Houlden 2025). The accompanying chart illustrates the S-curve with these three factors.
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