Sentinel forecasters raise ASI alert to highest level after Anthropic's acceleration warning
teortaxesTex · x · 2026-11-10
Sentinel's Global Risks Weekly Roundup #45 raises its superintelligence alert to the highest level in a long time. Forecaster NunoSempere notes forecasters wanted red while he wanted yellow, and they split the difference. Key points:
- Anthropic says its systems may be on the cusp of dramatically accelerating AI capabilities, corroborated by METR; its IPO is expected this month at $1.5T valuation
- ASI arrival forecasts (no strong governance intervention), 10/50/90 percentiles: 2027.2, 2028.2, 2047.5
- Unconditional 10-year AI-extinction probability: 6% (0.2%–50%)
- 11% chance the US government halts frontier AI for 6+ months before 2028; if so, 74% chance China follows within 12 months
A heavyweight bellwether showing frontier-lab statements are pushing professional forecasters' risk assessments upward.
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