Toby Ord: AI revenue growth mixes capability, apps, and diffusion lags
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-10
In a substantive exchange on AI's economic impact, Toby Ord argues current AI revenue growth combines (a) raw capability gains (e.g. ECI measures), (b) better apps and APIs, and (c) diffusion lags — noting that if AI training stopped, total revenue could still grow 100x or more as lags unwind. Ben Todd adds that modeling diffusion as a constant lag roughly factors it out in between-period comparisons, though at any given point economic impact remains underestimated.
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