Polymarket gives Tesla just 7% odds of launching California robotaxis by year-end
Polymarket · x · 2026-11-09
- Polymarket prices only a 7% chance Tesla launches robotaxis in California by Dec 31, backed by hard regulatory facts.
- Tesla holds no driverless permits from the CA DMV or CPUC; its Bay Area rides are supervised (safety driver) under a basic charter-party carrier permit, with negligible reported AV test miles.
- Regulators clearly distinguish Level 2 FSD from unsupervised operation, and a new state law adds emergency-response requirements.
- Tesla is expanding unsupervised service in Texas and Florida instead — Austin's coverage just grew to 3x Waymo's zone — with unsupervised customer FSD targeted for Q2 2027.
- A fast-track approval remains possible but faces substantial procedural and data hurdles.
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