Chart: AI progress per $1bn of R&D falls from 6.58 to 0.76 points as spending compounds
skdh · x · 2026-11-09
Ramez and sebkrier share an updated chart based on METR's acceleration estimates (using Anthropic data) arguing that AI progress per dollar of R&D spending shows clear diminishing returns. Cumulative nominal R&D spend since Jan 2024 reaches $29bn, while progress per $1bn drops from 6.58 pts early on to 4.05, then past a 'METR breakpoint' in Q3 2025 to 1.49 (H1 2026) and just 0.76 pts/$bn by Q3 2026. The authors' takeaway: even METR-estimated acceleration isn't enough to overcome the diminishing returns.
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