AI capability gains per billion dollars fell 8x in two years, chart shows
sebkrier · x · 2026-11-09
Ramez Naam published a chart showing Anthropic is gaining exponentially less capability per billion dollars spent: boosting AI capabilities now costs 8x as much as two years ago, worsening on a log scale, based on METR reports and internal models. He stresses he's wildly optimistic about AI capabilities and the AI business — but argues a holistic view requires modeling the steep diminishing returns that AI progress keeps fighting against.
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