METR: AI nearly doubles AI capability progress, akin to researchers moving 10x faster
ZhongRuiqi · x · 2026-11-09
Citing the METR AI R&D report, Ajeya Cotra notes its estimate that AI is nearly doubling the rate of AI capability progress — dramatic uplift equivalent to researchers experiencing time 10x faster, something unachievable even by hiring every qualified human. ZhongRuiqi responds that a more predictive metric would be how much AI speeds up AI systems themselves, e.g. via kernel engineering.
Related event: METR Claims Strong Evidence AI Is Accelerating Frontier Research(3 posts)→
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