AI progress per dollar is falling: from 6.58 to 0.76 AECI points per $1B spent, METR data shows
Eliv_nurotic · reddit · 2026-11-09
A Reddit post republishes Ramez Zabaneh's analysis plotting METR's measured acceleration at Anthropic against cumulative R&D spend. Timeline-wise, progress accelerated after the Oct 7, 2025 METR breakpoint (+15 to +29 AECI pts/yr, 1.9x), but spending grew faster: returns fell from 6.58 points per $1B in 2024 to 4.05 (2025 H1), 2.16 (Q3 2025), 1.49 (2026 H1) and 0.76 (Q3 2026). About $27.9B total bought 55 points. Author's takeaway: the acceleration isn't enough to overcome diminishing returns per dollar. The chart notes this is descriptive and doesn't show whether AI raises research productivity.
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